Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.338539 0.385372 0.436223 0.495524 0.562774 0.636667 0.724019
2025-09-14 0.258363 0.317718 0.387146 0.474312 0.580811 0.706700 0.866857
2025-09-21 0.206562 0.272466 0.354934 0.465626 0.610290 0.792944 1.041210
2025-09-28 0.166611 0.234592 0.325166 0.454525 0.634477 0.875974 1.224927
2025-10-05 0.143872 0.215243 0.316036 0.468519 0.693261 1.012354 1.500224
2025-10-12 0.121484 0.192419 0.298228 0.467188 0.730075 1.123540 1.757742
2025-10-19 0.105011 0.175480 0.286128 0.471994 0.776222 1.254559 2.064536
2025-10-26 0.092999 0.163440 0.279505 0.483965 0.834917 1.412771 2.437468
2025-11-02 0.078203 0.144202 0.258059 0.467920 0.844794 1.493118 2.694233
2025-11-09 0.064910 0.125300 0.234136 0.443573 0.836187 1.540255 2.899956
2025-11-16 0.056000 0.112894 0.219757 0.433948 0.852095 1.631938 3.198115
2025-11-23 0.048466 0.101839 0.206128 0.423445 0.864410 1.718090 3.497627
2025-11-30 0.043772 0.095918 0.201957 0.431773 0.916653 1.891355 4.000898
2025-12-07 0.037367 0.085335 0.186790 0.415332 0.916365 1.961435 4.308123
2025-12-14 0.032814 0.077985 0.177206 0.409188 0.936857 2.077243 4.730127
2025-12-21 0.028725 0.070958 0.167195 0.400458 0.950322 2.180167 5.140654
2025-12-28 0.026692 0.068399 0.166797 0.413583 1.015292 2.405455 5.861653
2026-01-04 0.024033 0.063836 0.160999 0.412965 1.047926 2.562137 6.447336
2026-01-11 0.021993 0.060482 0.157579 0.417627 1.094154 2.757500 7.156937
2026-01-18 0.020492 0.058279 0.156675 0.428537 1.157838 3.004442 8.033469
2026-01-25 0.018007 0.052952 0.146870 0.414520 1.154762 3.084611 8.495125
2026-02-01 0.015537 0.047216 0.135043 0.393064 1.128374 3.101063 8.791323
2026-02-08 0.013883 0.043548 0.128285 0.384625 1.136478 3.209811 9.356017